Shorting Gold: 8 More Signs Gold is Overdue for a Correction
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club
Two weeks ago I told you it was time to start shorting gold. And the recommendation, as I expected, ignited a brew-ha-ha on our Investment U message board.
That’s because there’s not much middle ground. Most investors are either fanatical or supremely skeptical. If you have any doubt, check out the comments - and all the wonderful names I got called - on our website.
But since I’m a glutton for punishment, and since gold moved in exactly the opposite direction I predicted, it’s time for an update and a little clarification. Read more…
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Investing in Crude Oil: The Best Way to Play Oil’s Imminent Rebound
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club
Billionaire investor George Soros and I don’t normally see eye to eye. He supports drug decriminalization, assisted suicide, America bashing… and a host of other off-the-reserve liberal causes.
I don’t. I’m an old-school Reagan conservative. (Full disclosure - I’m so old school, I named my first born after the late President.)
But here’s the thing. When it comes to investing, great political divides matter little. Because it’s not about getting our guy elected or unashamedly pushing a partisan agenda.
Instead, business - and by extension, investing in businesses - is only about increasing profits, as Milton Friedman put it. And based on the latest SEC filing for Soros’ hedge fund, we both agree on the best way for investing in crude oil’s imminent rebound… Read more…
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Shorting Gold: 12 Reasons Making The Case For This Contrarian Investment
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club
If you’re a self-professed “Goldbug,” feel free to read no further. Or at least spare me your hate mail. Because no matter what I say today, I know you’ll cry foul… or something much more colorful.
But for those of you with an open mind - especially after my last three contrarian predictions proved dead accurate, read on.
Because it’s time to start shorting gold! Read more…
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Small Cap Gains: 2 IPOs the Entire Market Should Be Watching
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club
Write this date (Feb. 11)… and these new IPO tickers down (OGAR and MJN).
Last week, we got the most bullish indicator for a small-cap rally yet. However, most investors didn’t catch it. And it received scant attention in the financial press, too.
But ignoring it could be a big mistake, as it could usher in the first round of sizeable small cap gains (50% or more). And I certainly don’t want you to miss out, so let me bring you up to speed… Read more…
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Income Investors: Dump GE & Buy This Safer Income Investment Instead
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club
We’ve endured three consecutive weeks of losses for the S&P 500 (.INX). Never fun. But if you’re an income investor, ala Charles Dickens, the worst of times is creating the best of times…
Dividend yields now rest close to 15-year highs. Plus, the premiums from writing covered calls (the only safe options strategy) are significantly higher thanks to the extreme market volatility.
As far as I’m concerned, that’s an attractive one-two income-earning punch we shouldn’t ignore.
So how do we play it?
Not with the usual suspects… Read more…
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Stock Profits from Today’s “Maximum Pessimism”
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, January 21, 2009: Issue #919
Yesterday was a train wreck for State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT). The stock cratered 59%. But don’t read too much into it…
Sure, the company’s quarterly results sent most investors into shock. A 71% drop in earnings? Another $1 billion in new credit exposures? If no one’s lending, how in the world are they just now discovering this liability?
I’ll be the first to confess, I flubbed the extent of the downturn in the financial space. Last April, I recommended “backing up the truck” and playing the rebound via the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (AMEX: XLF). Instead of a short-term opportunity, it’s turned into a really long-term rebound play. Read more…
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Investing in China: 11 Reasons Why & 5 Ways to Buy
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, January 14, 2009: Issue #915
It’s time to make a big bet and begin investing in China.
I know. It’s not exactly a popular stance. And the smart money is doing exactly the opposite. Or so it appears…
Yesterday, the Royal Bank of Scotland hit up the China ATM for a $2.37 billion withdrawal. It sold its entire 4.3% stake in Bank of China. And a week ago, Bank of America cashed out part of its stake in China Construction Bank Corp. for an estimated $2.83 billion.
Making matters worse, the MSCI China Index lost a record 53% last year. It’s counter-intuitive and near impossible to rationalize adding money to a losing investment…
Read more…
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Small-Cap Investing: How to Play The Emerging Small-Cap Rally
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, January 7, 2009: Issue #911
Forget the grim news that Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is slashing costs and cutting 13% of its workforce. We all know times are tough. But the market’s a forward-looking beast. And right now, it’s doing exactly what I predicted on November 19. It’s favoring small caps over large caps.
In December the little guys put up big numbers - a 5.8% gain versus a mere 1.1% uptick for the large guys, based on the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indexes.
Before I get to my favorite ways to screen and play this emerging small-cap rally, let me first address my critics.
My last column failed to convince some of you. Others thought I simply skimped on the proof. Or more specifically, that I failed to tell you why NOW is the right time to buy small caps.
As they put it, “We all know small caps lead the markets out of a recession. But what makes you so convinced we’re on the way out?”
As my college physics professor liked to say before each lecture, “Prepare to be enlightened.”
Read more…
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Small-Cap Stocks: The Most Important Trend Headed into 2009
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, December 23, 2008: Issue #906
Yesterday we got confirmation that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter. And most economists expect the downturn to accelerate, with GDP checking in as low as negative 6% in the fourth quarter. Here’s why I’m not concerned…
A more important trend is emerging. Remember, on November 19 I told you to consider going big, by going small with small caps. Well, the markets didn’t leave much time for preparation.
In that short span, small caps jumped 6.38%, almost tripling the returns of large caps, based on the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. Of course, it’s too early to declare a full-blown rally. But we shouldn’t be ignorant to the subtle shifts in market leadership.
Remember, the market’s a forward-looking beast. And that means even in the darkest hours we need to be thinking about the next bull market… and positioning ourselves to profit.
Read more…
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The Falling U.S. Dollar: Taking An About-Face
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, December 17, 2008: Issue #902
Investing requires tough decisions. What to buy? When to buy? How much?
But none more difficult than this: Admitting the fundamentals no longer support an investment you own. Or, as the French philosopher Geoffrey F. Abert summed it up over 900 years ago, “It often takes more courage to change one’s opinion than to stick to it.”
And today I’m living proof.
Just three weeks ago, to the day, I declared, “The dollar’s not done.” I laid out my case about Jim Roger’s being wrong.
But I’m officially changing my stance on the falling U.S. dollar.
To be clear, it’s not because I finally saw the light, recognized the error of my ways, or heeded the “sage” advice of so many of you that wrote in to chastise my “foolishness” or “ignorance.” And I didn’t get a personal phone call from Jim Rogers, either.
Read more…
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