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The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now

November 13th, 2008

The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, November 12, 2008: Issue #884

Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…

You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).

Most of the indicators that the market relies on to forecast the future are worthless in this type of environment. The truth is the data coming out of the traditional economic indicators isn’t current. By the time it’s being reported, the information is already weeks or even months old.

If you want to know when the global slowdown that’s erased $28 trillion in wealth (so far) will finally reverse course, pay attention to the obscure Baltic Dry Index. And nothing else. Here’s why…

Read more…

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Long-Term Investment Goals: Answers to The Top 3 Investing Questions Right Now

October 16th, 2008

Long-Term Investment Goals: Answers to The Top 3 Investing Questions Right Now

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Thursday, October 16, 2008: Issue #872

With Investment U having over 360,000 members and The Oxford Club with over 70,000, Alex Green and I always get a steady stream of questions. But in recent weeks, as the market has accelerated its descent, they’ve become increasingly alarmist.

As I’ve learned, when we give into panic, we act hastily. And often undermine our long-term investment goals.

So today, let’s put to rest some of your pressing concerns. And make sure that doesn’t happen.

Long Term Investment Goals: Is My Cash Safe?

When my grandfather died, my grandmother found $17,000 lying around the house. He was Italian. So yes, some was stashed under mattresses. Some was in coffee cans behind the refrigerator in the basement. And more still was found in his sock drawer.

Forget the terrible investment implication of earning no interest on this money. My father almost burnt the house down when he was 12. And my great uncle was convicted of arson. So an “accidental” fire, not inflation, was a bigger threat to his savings.

My point: There’s a lot of fear in the market. Banks continue to go under. Many people are trying to predict the next collapse, and move their assets in advance. (I can empathize because I bank with Washington Mutual, now JP Morgan.) But whatever you do, be smarter than us Italians. The mattress is not a safe or smart place for cash.

In all seriousness, if we take a few simple steps, we can keep all our cash in the bank, and make sure every penny is insured.

The rescue package increased the FDIC limits up $250,000 per qualified account. This increase alone brings almost 75% of deposits in the United States under coverage. The expanded coverage remains in effect until December 31, 2009.

If you have more than $250,000 in cash, you don’t have to move it to another bank to get an additional $250,000 in coverage. Simply set up another account under a different ownership category (single, joint, IRA, revocable trust, corporation, etc.). For most banks, this can even be done online.

For those interested in insuring large deposits, up to $50 million, you might want to consider EverBank’s Insured Advantage Certificates of Deposit (CDARS)*.

Long Term Investment Goals: Should I Worry About Mutual Fund Companies Going Bankrupt?

No. We’re protected here, too. The Investment Act of 1940 requires each fund to be set up as an individual corporate entity, with a board of directors. That entity then hires the mutual fund company to manage its assets. So if the mutual fund company goes belly-up, its creditors can’t touch the fund’s assets. And the board of directors simply hires a new manager, after getting shareholder approval.

The only way your mutual fund can go bankrupt is if the actual value of all the stocks or bonds in the portfolio drop to zero.

Long Term Investment Goals: What if My Broker Goes Out of Business?

Again, we’re covered. Brokerage firms are restricted from co-mingling funds by SEC Rule 15c3-3 - the Customer Protection Rule. Or as they used to tell us at summer camp - boys are blue, girls are red. And we don’t want any purple running around here.

As the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) explains, “In virtually all cases, when a brokerage firm ceases to operate, customer assets are safe and typically are transferred in an orderly fashion to another registered brokerage firm.”

But we all know that Wall Street doesn’t always abide by the rules. That’s where SIPC insurance comes in. Created in 1970 as a non-profit, non-government membership corporation, funded by member broker-dealers, the SIPC’s primary role is to return funds and securities to investors if the broker-dealer holding these assets becomes insolvent.

SIPC coverage is limited to $500,000 per customer, including up to $100,000 for cash. But again, we can easily increase coverage by establishing multiple accounts under different ownership structures.

Good investing,

Lou

P.S. If you’re looking to put your money back to work, or if you’re looking for some ideas of what to do with your cash holdings, take a look at our Perpetual Income Portfolio. It’s yielding over 17% right now.

* Disclaimer: The publisher of Investment U maintains a marketing relationship with EverBank, but it’s important to note that we’d recommend their products and services anyway.

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The TakeOver Trader: 3 Ways to Master the “Skim” Trade This Year

January 9th, 2008

The TakeOver Trader: 3 Ways to Master the “Skim” Trade This Year

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, January 9, 2008: Issue #750

Potential takeover targets represent one of the best short-term moneymakers that exist. The profits just can’t be beat…

Research out of The Journal of Economic Perspectives pegs the average gain at 38%, based on a sample of more than 4,200 deals. And that’s in a single day. Obviously, the averages only tell part of the story…

There are countless examples of much higher returns. Last year, for instance, my TakeOver Trader subscribers netted a 63% gain when Oracle announced it was acquiring Hyperion Solutions for $3.3 billion.

I’ve yet to find another investment with similar upside potential in such a short amount of time. And I have a great way of spotting these deals early. Three ways, actually…

Takeover Payday Is as Easy as 1, 2, 3…

To win at the takeover game, you have to identify companies in time to “skim” profits as a deal is announced. And it’s actually not that difficult if you know what to look for…

After evaluating hundreds of deals in recent years, I’ve discovered three signs a takeover could be nigh. Here they are, plus several companies where the takeover potential is particularly high right now…

Takover Target #1: Tracking the Merger Monday Phenomenon

For some reason, the bulk of M&A deals are announced on Mondays. My guess is that investment bankers use the weekends to finalize deals, when there’s no chance someone can leak information and impact current prices ahead of a final agreement.

Regardless of the reason, if you simply clip out the deals announced in the Monday edition of the Wall Street Journal for a couple weeks, making note of the industries or sectors of each company, you’ll be able to hone in on takeover targets with ease.

You see, consolidation is a powerful force. And when multiple firms in the same industry or sector get gobbled up, chances are good that deals involving their closest competitors won’t be far off. It’s this strategy that recently tipped me off to MicroStrategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) and Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods (NYSE: WBD) - two stocks I consider compelling takeover targets today.

Takover Target #2: Follow the Insiders

Nobody knows better than insiders if they’re preparing the company for an eventual sale. So keep an eye on their buying activity. If they start buying in clusters, a takeover could be in the works. And if the company happens to be in an industry that’s consolidating as well, the chances are even greater an offer is expected.

Both conditions currently apply to Colonial Bancgroup (NYSE: CNB), a regional bank that’s been unfairly punished in the broad-based financial selloff.

Takover Target #3: Look For Spikes in Options Trading Volume

We’ve all been told secrets before. And what do we do? We eventually share them with someone. On Wall Street, privileged information leaks out in a similar fashion. And the way to track such secrets is through daily options trading volumes.

If you’ve found a stock that meets criteria #1 and #2 above, pay attention to trading activity in the front month call options. As a Yale study confirmed, “Prior to takeover announcements, call volume imbalances are strongly positive related to next-day stock returns.”

Put simply, if a stock is trading for $10 and investors pile into $15 front-month calls, the only explanation is a takeover. Nobody’s foolish enough to buy options that require a 50% move in the stock in less than 30 days to profit. Unless, of course, they have very credible information. We saw this phenomenon play out several days before a deal for Alltel was announced, which eventually netted TakeOver Trader subscribers another double-digit gain.

In short, expect the takeovers to keep coming in 2008. And don’t be misled into thinking it’s too late (or difficult) to get in on the frenzy.

Good investing,

Louis Basenese

Editor’s Note: To get a steady stream of these takeover “skim” trades delivered right to your inbox, here’s how to use Lou’s service to put an extra $5,250 a month into your account. This year, Louis plans to capitalize on “attractive targets for international buyers, as I’m convinced a weak dollar will encourage more cross-border deals in 2008.” Learn more.


Today’s Investment U Crib Sheet

  • The takeover frenzy is certainly alive and well, and on Mondays indeed… The first three Mondays in December were the busiest since July, according to Reuters, when “deals hit the market before investors have even had their first cup of coffee.” Take a look at the worldwide M&A volume on these days…

    Monday, December 3rd $35.9 billion

    Monday, December 10th $42.4 billion

    Monday, December 17th $26.5 billion

  • Of course, shareholders of Shore Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: SHBK), prefer Wednesdays… This morning at 6 a.m., Hampton Roads Bankshares (Nasdaq: HMPR) and Shore announced that the two companies are merging. It’s a cash and stock deal that sent shares of Shore Financial 41% higher today, to $18.25. Not bad.

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